Expectancy & Kelly calculator
The average result per trade your numbers imply, and the bet size the Kelly criterion would suggest.
How it is worked out
Expectancy = win rate × average win − loss rate × average loss, in R. Kelly % = W − (1 − W) ÷ payoff. Full Kelly is very aggressive; many traders use a quarter of it or less.
Questions
Should I risk the full Kelly fraction?
Rarely. Kelly assumes you know your exact edge. Real win rates drift, and full Kelly produces deep drawdowns. A fraction of Kelly is far safer.